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03:10:24","items":[{"horizon":7,"target_date":"2026-09-21","low":73500,"mid":78200,"high":83000,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.72,"rationale":"The 7-day daily log-return volatility of 1.26% is significantly lower than the 30-day volatility of 2.49%, justifying a narrower range than the reference model. The price remains above the SMA7 of 77535.19, indicating short-term stability.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"67ee713e3822ceb4","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-05-03","to":"2026-09-14","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-05-03","to":"2026-09-14","n":500,"price":78173.351583445,"sma7":77535.19405425628,"sma30":76470.44097819684,"rsi14":57.819554559463214,"vol30_daily_pct":2.49,"chg7_pct":-1.16,"chg30_pct":24.02,"mdd90_pct":-9.12},"fng":{"value":57,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-14","avg7":63,"avg7_d":"2026-09-14","pct":69.7},"cycles":{"ma200d":70180.53,"mayer":1.114,"mayer_pct":55.1,"ma200w":65464.09,"vs_ma200w_pct":19.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.3,"days_since_ath":343,"underwater_days":343,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":788},"deriv":{"oi_days":78,"d":"2026-09-14","funding_last":6.4713333333333e-5,"funding_avg7":5.878e-5,"oi_last":104897.336,"oi_chg7_pct":-0.6},"vols":{"7":1.26,"14":1.83,"30":2.49,"90":1.9},"rv":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":44.2,"pct":29.4,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":69.8,"min":40.7,"max":154.2,"n":5142,"full":82.3,"from":"2012-08-17"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":38.57,"pct":33,"median":40.79,"min":33.81,"max":82.62,"n":420,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":47.6,"spread":-9},"index":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":53.6,"zone":"neutral"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-09-14","avg7":0.0059,"annual":6.4,"pct":56.3,"median":0.0063,"n":2559,"from":"2019-09-13"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":0.032169,"pct":37.9,"median":0.037228,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3842,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":28.5,"median":0.041237,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077827,"from":"2022-09-16"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.02489,"reference_half_width_pct":8.8,"width_vs_reference":0.721,"direction_model":"flat"}},{"horizon":30,"target_date":"2026-10-14","low":67000,"mid":78500,"high":90000,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.65,"rationale":"The options-implied 30-day volatility of 38.57 is 9.0 points below the 30-day annualised realised volatility of 47.6%, suggesting compressed expectations. This outlook is supported by a neutral Hodlometer Index of 53.6.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"67ee713e3822ceb4","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-05-03","to":"2026-09-14","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-05-03","to":"2026-09-14","n":500,"price":78173.351583445,"sma7":77535.19405425628,"sma30":76470.44097819684,"rsi14":57.819554559463214,"vol30_daily_pct":2.49,"chg7_pct":-1.16,"chg30_pct":24.02,"mdd90_pct":-9.12},"fng":{"value":57,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-14","avg7":63,"avg7_d":"2026-09-14","pct":69.7},"cycles":{"ma200d":70180.53,"mayer":1.114,"mayer_pct":55.1,"ma200w":65464.09,"vs_ma200w_pct":19.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.3,"days_since_ath":343,"underwater_days":343,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":788},"deriv":{"oi_days":78,"d":"2026-09-14","funding_last":6.4713333333333e-5,"funding_avg7":5.878e-5,"oi_last":104897.336,"oi_chg7_pct":-0.6},"vols":{"7":1.26,"14":1.83,"30":2.49,"90":1.9},"rv":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":44.2,"pct":29.4,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":69.8,"min":40.7,"max":154.2,"n":5142,"full":82.3,"from":"2012-08-17"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":38.57,"pct":33,"median":40.79,"min":33.81,"max":82.62,"n":420,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":47.6,"spread":-9},"index":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":53.6,"zone":"neutral"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-09-14","avg7":0.0059,"annual":6.4,"pct":56.3,"median":0.0063,"n":2559,"from":"2019-09-13"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-09-14","value":0.032169,"pct":37.9,"median":0.037228,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3842,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":28.5,"median":0.041237,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077827,"from":"2022-09-16"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.02489,"reference_half_width_pct":19.07,"width_vs_reference":0.845,"direction_model":"flat"}}]},{"source":"statistical","model":"loglin-60d","base_date":"2026-09-14","created_at":"2026-09-15 03:10:10","items":[{"horizon":7,"target_date":"2026-09-21","low":74018.94,"mid":80529.78,"high":87613.32,"direction":"up","confidence":0.75,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 60 days: +3.39% per week (R²=0.70), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 2.49% gives a modelled range from -5.3% to +12.1% against the last close of $78,173 over 7 days. RSI14 = 58 (neutral). Price is above its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed). Measured coverage of this range at 7 days: 75% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-60d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2026-07-17","to":"2026-09-14","n":60},"indicators":{"from":"2025-08-11","to":"2026-09-14","n":400,"price":78173.351583445,"sma7":77535.19405425628,"sma30":76470.44097819684,"rsi14":57.8195545594583,"vol30_daily_pct":2.49,"chg7_pct":-1.16,"chg30_pct":24.02,"mdd90_pct":-9.12},"fng":{"value":57,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-14"},"cycles":{"ma200d":70180.53,"mayer":1.114,"mayer_pct":55.1,"ma200w":65464.09,"vs_ma200w_pct":19.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.3,"days_since_ath":343,"underwater_days":343,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":788},"slope_per_day":0.004768,"r2":0.705,"sigma_daily":0.02489,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":75.4}},{"horizon":30,"target_date":"2026-10-14","low":71603.92,"mid":85257.82,"high":101515.33,"direction":"up","confidence":0.67,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 60 days: +3.39% per week (R²=0.70), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 2.49% gives a modelled range from -8.4% to +29.9% against the last close of $78,173 over 30 days. RSI14 = 58 (neutral). Price is above its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed). Measured coverage of this range at 30 days: 67% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-60d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2026-07-17","to":"2026-09-14","n":60},"indicators":{"from":"2025-08-11","to":"2026-09-14","n":400,"price":78173.351583445,"sma7":77535.19405425628,"sma30":76470.44097819684,"rsi14":57.8195545594583,"vol30_daily_pct":2.49,"chg7_pct":-1.16,"chg30_pct":24.02,"mdd90_pct":-9.12},"fng":{"value":57,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-14"},"cycles":{"ma200d":70180.53,"mayer":1.114,"mayer_pct":55.1,"ma200w":65464.09,"vs_ma200w_pct":19.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.3,"days_since_ath":343,"underwater_days":343,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":788},"slope_per_day":0.004768,"r2":0.705,"sigma_daily":0.02489,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":67.1}},{"horizon":180,"target_date":"2027-03-13","low":50297.87,"mid":77128.45,"high":118271.35,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.57,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -1.05% per week (R²=0.65), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 2.49% gives a modelled range from -35.7% to +51.3% against the last close of $78,173 over 6 months. RSI14 = 58 (neutral). Price is above its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed). Measured coverage of this range at 6 months: 57% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-365d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2025-09-15","to":"2026-09-14","n":365},"indicators":{"from":"2025-08-11","to":"2026-09-14","n":400,"price":78173.351583445,"sma7":77535.19405425628,"sma30":76470.44097819684,"rsi14":57.8195545594583,"vol30_daily_pct":2.49,"chg7_pct":-1.16,"chg30_pct":24.02,"mdd90_pct":-9.12},"fng":{"value":57,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-14"},"cycles":{"ma200d":70180.53,"mayer":1.114,"mayer_pct":55.1,"ma200w":65464.09,"vs_ma200w_pct":19.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.3,"days_since_ath":343,"underwater_days":343,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":788},"slope_per_day":-0.001502,"r2":0.652,"sigma_daily":0.02489,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":57.4}},{"horizon":365,"target_date":"2027-09-14","low":42474.56,"mid":78075.7,"high":143516.87,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.5,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -1.05% per week (R²=0.65), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 2.49% gives a modelled range from -45.7% to +83.6% against the last close of $78,173 over 1 year. RSI14 = 58 (neutral). Price is above its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed). Measured coverage of this range at 1 year: 50% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-365d + 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