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03:11:00","items":[{"horizon":7,"target_date":"2026-11-05","low":73800,"mid":77000,"high":81200,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.78,"rationale":"With the price at 77838.81 trading below SMA7 of 80272.17 and RSI14 at 35.9, short-term momentum remains suppressed. The range incorporates recent 7d daily log-return volatility of 1.75% around current levels.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"cdac76e3e2fc51f4","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-06-17","to":"2026-10-29","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-06-17","to":"2026-10-29","n":500,"price":77838.814565877,"sma7":80272.16951468187,"sma30":82512.1411548079,"rsi14":35.94506288886792,"vol30_daily_pct":1.52,"chg7_pct":-4.29,"chg30_pct":-6.94,"mdd90_pct":-10.11},"fng":{"value":51,"label":"Neutral","d":"2026-10-29","avg7":50.7,"avg7_d":"2026-10-29","pct":47.7},"cycles":{"ma200d":73106.97,"mayer":1.065,"mayer_pct":42.8,"ma200w":67447.72,"vs_ma200w_pct":15.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.6,"days_since_ath":388,"underwater_days":388,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":794},"deriv":{"oi_days":123,"d":"2026-10-29","funding_last":7.174e-5,"funding_avg7":6.921e-5,"oi_last":95785.715,"oi_chg7_pct":-2.3},"vols":{"7":1.75,"14":1.64,"30":1.52,"90":2.01},"rv":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":43.9,"pct":25.8,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":69.6,"min":40.7,"max":154.2,"n":5187,"full":82.1,"from":"2012-08-17"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":41.99,"pct":57.5,"median":40.16,"min":33.59,"max":82.62,"n":465,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":29.1,"spread":12.9},"index":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":42.8,"zone":"neutral"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-10-29","avg7":0.0069,"annual":7.6,"pct":65.7,"median":0.0062,"n":2604,"from":"2019-09-13"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":0.028899,"pct":27.5,"median":0.03674,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3887,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":16.3,"median":0.039128,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077773,"from":"2022-10-31"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.01523,"reference_half_width_pct":5.29,"width_vs_reference":0.926,"direction_model":"flat"}},{"horizon":30,"target_date":"2026-11-28","low":68000,"mid":77000,"high":87000,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.7,"rationale":"Options-implied 30-day volatility at 41.99 sits above 30-day annualized realized volatility of 29.1%, framing a wider expected band. This outlook aligns with a Mayer Multiple of 1.065 and price sitting below SMA30 of 82512.14.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"cdac76e3e2fc51f4","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-06-17","to":"2026-10-29","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-06-17","to":"2026-10-29","n":500,"price":77838.814565877,"sma7":80272.16951468187,"sma30":82512.1411548079,"rsi14":35.94506288886792,"vol30_daily_pct":1.52,"chg7_pct":-4.29,"chg30_pct":-6.94,"mdd90_pct":-10.11},"fng":{"value":51,"label":"Neutral","d":"2026-10-29","avg7":50.7,"avg7_d":"2026-10-29","pct":47.7},"cycles":{"ma200d":73106.97,"mayer":1.065,"mayer_pct":42.8,"ma200w":67447.72,"vs_ma200w_pct":15.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.6,"days_since_ath":388,"underwater_days":388,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":794},"deriv":{"oi_days":123,"d":"2026-10-29","funding_last":7.174e-5,"funding_avg7":6.921e-5,"oi_last":95785.715,"oi_chg7_pct":-2.3},"vols":{"7":1.75,"14":1.64,"30":1.52,"90":2.01},"rv":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":43.9,"pct":25.8,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":69.6,"min":40.7,"max":154.2,"n":5187,"full":82.1,"from":"2012-08-17"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":41.99,"pct":57.5,"median":40.16,"min":33.59,"max":82.62,"n":465,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":29.1,"spread":12.9},"index":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":42.8,"zone":"neutral"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-10-29","avg7":0.0069,"annual":7.6,"pct":65.7,"median":0.0062,"n":2604,"from":"2019-09-13"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-10-29","value":0.028899,"pct":27.5,"median":0.03674,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3887,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":16.3,"median":0.039128,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077773,"from":"2022-10-31"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.01523,"reference_half_width_pct":11.27,"width_vs_reference":1.154,"direction_model":"flat"}}]},{"source":"statistical","model":"loglin-60d","base_date":"2026-10-29","created_at":"2026-10-30 03:10:10","items":[{"horizon":7,"target_date":"2026-11-05","low":74296.76,"mid":78230.17,"high":82371.83,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.75,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 60 days: +0.57% per week (R²=0.16), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 1.52% gives a modelled range from -4.6% to +5.8% against the last close of $77,839 over 7 days. RSI14 = 36 (neutral). Price is below its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral). Measured coverage of this range at 7 days: 75% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-60d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2026-08-31","to":"2026-10-29","n":60},"indicators":{"from":"2025-09-25","to":"2026-10-29","n":400,"price":77838.814565877,"sma7":80272.16951468187,"sma30":82512.1411548079,"rsi14":35.9450628888801,"vol30_daily_pct":1.52,"chg7_pct":-4.29,"chg30_pct":-6.94,"mdd90_pct":-10.11},"fng":{"value":51,"label":"Neutral","d":"2026-10-29"},"cycles":{"ma200d":73106.97,"mayer":1.065,"mayer_pct":42.8,"ma200w":67447.72,"vs_ma200w_pct":15.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.6,"days_since_ath":388,"underwater_days":388,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":794},"slope_per_day":0.000805,"r2":0.155,"sigma_daily":0.01523,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":75.4}},{"horizon":30,"target_date":"2026-11-28","low":70986.69,"mid":78987.53,"high":87890.13,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.67,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 60 days: +0.57% per week (R²=0.16), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 1.52% gives a modelled range from -8.8% to +12.9% against the last close of $77,839 over 30 days. RSI14 = 36 (neutral). Price is below its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral). Measured coverage of this range at 30 days: 67% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-60d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2026-08-31","to":"2026-10-29","n":60},"indicators":{"from":"2025-09-25","to":"2026-10-29","n":400,"price":77838.814565877,"sma7":80272.16951468187,"sma30":82512.1411548079,"rsi14":35.9450628888801,"vol30_daily_pct":1.52,"chg7_pct":-4.29,"chg30_pct":-6.94,"mdd90_pct":-10.11},"fng":{"value":51,"label":"Neutral","d":"2026-10-29"},"cycles":{"ma200d":73106.97,"mayer":1.065,"mayer_pct":42.8,"ma200w":67447.72,"vs_ma200w_pct":15.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.6,"days_since_ath":388,"underwater_days":388,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":794},"slope_per_day":0.000805,"r2":0.155,"sigma_daily":0.01523,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":67.1}},{"horizon":180,"target_date":"2027-04-27","low":59590.03,"mid":77407.81,"high":100553.21,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.57,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -0.43% per week (R²=0.20), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 1.52% gives a modelled range from -23.4% to +29.2% against the last close of $77,839 over 6 months. RSI14 = 36 (neutral). Price is below its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral). Measured coverage of this range at 6 months: 57% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-365d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2025-10-30","to":"2026-10-29","n":365},"indicators":{"from":"2025-09-25","to":"2026-10-29","n":400,"price":77838.814565877,"sma7":80272.16951468187,"sma30":82512.1411548079,"rsi14":35.9450628888801,"vol30_daily_pct":1.52,"chg7_pct":-4.29,"chg30_pct":-6.94,"mdd90_pct":-10.11},"fng":{"value":51,"label":"Neutral","d":"2026-10-29"},"cycles":{"ma200d":73106.97,"mayer":1.065,"mayer_pct":42.8,"ma200w":67447.72,"vs_ma200w_pct":15.4,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-37.6,"days_since_ath":388,"underwater_days":388,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":794},"slope_per_day":-0.00062,"r2":0.204,"sigma_daily":0.01523,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":57.4}},{"horizon":365,"target_date":"2027-10-29","low":53603.09,"mid":77798.68,"high":112915.78,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.5,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -0.43% per week (R²=0.20), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 1.52% gives a modelled range from -31.1% to +45.1% against the last close of $77,839 over 1 year. RSI14 = 36 (neutral). Price is below its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral). Measured coverage of this range at 1 year: 50% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-365d + 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