What this means for a holder
The Mayer Multiple is a good ruler and a bad alarm clock. It measures one thing precisely — how far price has travelled from the average of its last two hundred days — and it measures it with a lag by construction. A 200-day average cannot know about a change in the market until roughly a third of its window has seen that change.
Today's 0.907 for bitcoin sits in the cool band: hotter than only 27% of the last four years, and below the level where the average itself sits. Note what that does not tell you. The ratio falls when price drops and it falls when the average catches up to a flat price; the two look identical here, and only one of them is a drawdownDrawdownHow far a price has fallen from its own highest point, in percent. A 60% drawdown means the price sits 60% below the peak — and needs a 150% rise just to get back to it.Full entry in the glossary →.
The way we would use it: as one input among several, checked monthly rather than daily, and read as a percentile rather than a level. If you buy on a schedule, this number is not a reason to change the schedule. It is a way of knowing whether the moment you are buying into is an ordinary one for this cycle or an unusual one — and unusual moments are, by the arithmetic of percentiles, rare.
What it will not do is tell you when a top is in. In our own history the classic 2.4 threshold fired once, in early 2021, and stayed silent through every all-time highAll-time highThe highest price an asset has ever traded at. “Distance from the all-time high” says how far below that peak today sits.Full entry in the glossary → that followed, including October 2025 at 1.177. Any fixed level shares that flaw: the distribution it was fitted to has already moved.
Read the full guide
Mayer Multiple Explained for Long-Term Holders
Eight years of readings, the 2.4 threshold checked against our own data, and the honest limitations.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mayer Multiple?
Price divided by its own 200-day simple moving average. A reading of 1.0 means price sits exactly on that average, 1.5 means it is 50% above it, 0.8 means it is 20% below. It is a measure of stretch, not of value: it says how far price has run from its recent trend and nothing about where it goes next.
What is the Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin today?
On 26 Jul 2026 bitcoin closed at $65,400 against a 200-day average of $72,110, a Mayer Multiple of 0.907. That is the 27th percentile of the last four years — hotter than 27% of the readings in that window and colder than the rest. Ether stands at 0.911.
Is a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 a sell signal?
We would not call it one. In our own daily history bitcoin has closed above 2.4 on just 199 days out of 5,258 — under one per cent, and almost all of them inside a single ten-week stretch in early 2021. Bitcoin then went on to set new all-time highs several times without ever revisiting 2.4. A threshold that fires once per cycle and misses every subsequent top is a poor alarm.
Why do you rank the value instead of comparing it with a fixed level?
Because the distribution moves. Bitcoin's volatility, and with it the typical distance between price and its average, has fallen over the years: the October 2025 all-time high arrived at a Mayer Multiple of 1.177, a level that would not have looked remarkable in 2017. A percentile answers the question a holder actually has — is this an ordinary moment or an unusual one — and keeps answering it as the market changes. The same normalisation feeds the Hodlometer Index.
Does the Mayer Multiple work for Ethereum?
The arithmetic works for any price series, and we publish it for both. Ether's distribution is simply wider: its extremes reach further in both directions than bitcoin's, so the same raw number means something different for each asset. That is exactly why the zone bands on this page are calculated per asset rather than shared.
How often does this page update?
Once a day, after the 00:00 UTC daily candle closes. Every figure here is therefore dated to 26 Jul 2026, the last closed daily candle, and today's unfinished candle is deliberately excluded.
How this page is calculated
- Source. Daily closes in UTC: CoinGecko with Binance as a fallback for the recent tape, Binance klines back to 2017-08-17, and exchange daily candles before that (Bitstamp for bitcoin from 18 Aug 2011, Bitfinex for ether from 9 Mar 2016). The 200-day average is a simple mean of the last 200 closes, so the first Mayer Multiple we can calculate is dated 4 Mar 2012.
- Today's candle is excluded. Everything is computed from closed daily candles, which is why the reading is dated 26 Jul 2026 rather than to this minute.
- Percentiles use the mid-rank convention — values below plus half the values equal, divided by the window size — inside a trailing 1,460-day window. This is the same normalisation that turns the Mayer Multiple into a component of the Hodlometer Index, so the numbers on this page and on the methodology page agree by construction.
- Another exchange will give a slightly different number. A different close time or a volume-weighted price moves the ratio in the second decimal place. Treat the third decimal as noise.