About

About Hodlometer

Hodlometer is a market thermometer for people who hold bitcoin and ether across cycles. It publishes one composite reading, the data underneath it, and explainers written for holders rather than traders. That is the whole product.

Why it exists

Cycle metrics are not hard to find. They are hard to find in a form that respects your time: most sites either bury a good chart under a paywall, or surround it with a live ticker wall, a countdown timer and someone shouting about a breakout.

We wanted the opposite. A page you can open once a week, read in forty seconds, and close — with enough detail underneath if you want to argue with the method. The Hodlometer Index is that page; the methodology is that detail. Every page renders its numbers on the server, so the reading is in the HTML whether or not scripts run. The markets dashboard is the exception worth naming: its charts and cards are drawn in the browser from our own JSON endpoint after the server-rendered snapshot. That request goes to this site and nowhere else — there are no third-party scripts and no trackers following you off the site.

What it does

• Computes a daily 0–100 composite from four inputs — the Mayer Multiple, distance to the 200-week moving average, the Fear & Greed Index and perpetual funding rates — each normalised as a percentile of its own recent history.
• Publishes the whole calculation, including the parts we are not happy with.
• Gives the numbers away: a free JSON API, open CORS, no key, reusable commercially as long as you credit the source with a visible link.
• Writes explainers that assume you are intelligent and busy, not that you already know what a funding rate is.

What it does not do

• No advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. We are not licensed advisers and would not want to be.
• No signals. Nothing here tells you to act. The index describes the present in historical terms; it has no view on tomorrow, and neither do we.
• One exception, stated plainly. The markets page carries a forecast block — a statistical model at four horizons and an AI model at two. It is an experiment in measuring forecasts, not a service we are offering: every range is scored against what actually happened, and the scores are published next to it, including the ones that make the models look bad. The statistical model’s range has contained the price 76% of the time at seven days and 50% (bitcoin) to 67% (ether) at a year; the AI model has no scored forecasts at all yet. Nothing in that block feeds the index, and none of it is a price call we stand behind. If you take one number from this site, take the index, not a forecast.
• No news desk. There are better-resourced places to read what happened yesterday.
• No altcoins, no DeFi, no NFTs. Bitcoin and ether, deliberately. Two assets we can cover properly beat twenty we cannot.
• No account required to read anything public on this site, and no tracking scripts either way.

Who is behind it

A small independent team. We are keeping personal names off the site on purpose: the argument for trusting a number here should be that the method is published and reproducible, not that someone with a nice profile photo vouched for it. Judge the methodology, not the byline.

We hold both assets. That is a bias worth stating out loud, and it is one reason the index is built from mechanical rules rather than judgement calls — the weights and windows were fixed once, in public, and changing them means saying so on the methodology page with a date.

How it is funded

Right now: not at all. There is no advertising, no affiliate link and no paid tier on this site today.

That will change, and we would rather tell you the rules in advance than surprise you. When money does arrive it will be affiliate links to hardware wallets and exchanges that holders actually use — always labelled as such — and, later, at most two conventional ad slots per page. No pop-ups, no interstitials, no sponsored “analysis”, and never a partner whose product we would not use ourselves.

One of those is a conflict and we would rather name it than let you find it: exchanges pay affiliates on trading volume. A site that earns more when you trade more, while telling you to check in once a month and do nothing, is being pulled in two directions. Hardware wallets are not — they pay once, for a device that exists so you can stop trading. We are stating the structure rather than promising it will not matter: if you ever find a page here nudging you toward activity, that is the reason to suspect, and the methodology is public so you can check what actually changed. The index itself will never be sponsored, and no commercial arrangement will ever change a number on this site.

Data, corrections and history

Prices come from CoinGecko with Binance as a fallback, sentiment from alternative.me, funding from Binance perpetual futures. The index series currently runs from 2018-02-07 to 2026-07-26 (3092 days) and is recomputed once a day after the 00:00 UTC candle close.

Readings dated before this site existed were backfilled from the same sources — the percentile windows contain no look-ahead, but nobody saw those numbers in real time, and the methodology page says so. If you find an error, tell us and we will fix it and note the correction.

Contact

Corrections, data questions, tool requests, press: hello@hodlometer.com. We read everything and answer most things. Requests from people who hold through cycles carry the most weight when we decide what to build next.