Markets
Bitcoin & Ethereum, measured
Prices, cycleMarket cycleThe pattern crypto has followed so far: a long rise into a peak, a fall of 70% or more, a quiet stretch, then a new rise. Each round has taken roughly four years.Full entry in the glossary → indicators, derivatives positioning and price forecasts at four horizons — each one shown together with the data it was built from. Free and open to everyone; an account is only needed for alerts and your own portfolio.
BTC $76,533 −2.6% 24h · ETH $2,426 −3.2% 24h · Hodlometer Index 53.6 Neutral · reading for UTC
Cycles and derivatives
Price against its own long averages, plus the funding rateFunding rateA small payment traders in perpetual futures make to each other, usually every eight hours, which keeps the futures price tethered to the spot price. When it is positive, the people betting on a rise are paying the people betting on a fall.Full entry in the glossary → and open interestOpen interestThe total size of futures positions currently open. Rising open interest means more borrowed money is riding on the market; a sudden drop usually means positions were closed or forcibly liquidated.Full entry in the glossary → of perpetual futuresPerpetual futuresFutures contracts with no expiry date — the main way crypto is traded with borrowed money. Because they never settle, a recurring funding payment is what keeps their price tied to the spot market.Full entry in the glossary → — how much borrowed money is riding on the market right now.
Time under water
Every day’s distance from the highest daily close seen up to that point, and the episodes deeper than 30%. This is where the number above sits in the history of the same number.
BTC today −37.3%
95.7% of the 5,507 days in our history closed below a previous high. The longest single stretch was 1,176 days.
ETH today −47.8%
97.6% of the 3,842 days in our history closed below a previous high. The longest single stretch was 1,382 days.
Episodes deeper than 30%
| Asset | High | Deepest | Reached | Days below | Back to high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 23 Aug 2011 $11.70 | −80.9% | 20 Oct 2011 58 days in | 355 | 13 Aug 2012 |
| BTC | 16 Aug 2012 $13.42 | −39.9% | 19 Aug 2012 3 days in | 111 | 6 Dec 2012 |
| BTC | 9 Apr 2013 $229.00 | −71.0% | 6 Jul 2013 88 days in | 209 | 5 Nov 2013 |
| BTC | 4 Dec 2013 $1,132 | −84.9% | 14 Jan 2015 406 days in | 1,176 | 23 Feb 2017 |
| BTC | 11 Jun 2017 $2,954 | −35.1% | 16 Jul 2017 35 days in | 54 | 5 Aug 2017 |
| BTC | 1 Sep 2017 $4,835 | −34.0% | 14 Sep 2017 13 days in | 40 | 12 Oct 2017 |
| BTC | 16 Dec 2017 $19,103 | −83.2% | 15 Dec 2018 364 days in | 1,073 | 24 Nov 2020 |
| BTC | 13 Apr 2021 $63,575 | −53.1% | 20 Jul 2021 98 days in | 188 | 19 Oct 2021 |
| BTC | 8 Nov 2021 $67,526 | −76.6% | 21 Nov 2022 378 days in | 846 | 4 Mar 2024 |
| BTC | 6 Oct 2025 $124,740 | −53.0% | 30 Jun 2026 267 days in | 343 | still running |
| ETH | 13 Mar 2016 $14.46 | −50.4% | 28 Apr 2016 46 days in | 66 | 19 May 2016 |
| ETH | 16 Jun 2016 $20.70 | −67.2% | 5 Dec 2016 172 days in | 267 | 11 Mar 2017 |
| ETH | 12 Jun 2017 $386.90 | −59.3% | 16 Jul 2017 34 days in | 80 | 1 Sep 2017 |
| ETH | 1 Sep 2017 $388.46 | −44.6% | 14 Sep 2017 13 days in | 82 | 23 Nov 2017 |
| ETH | 13 Jan 2018 $1,388 | −94.0% | 15 Dec 2018 336 days in | 1,106 | 24 Jan 2021 |
| ETH | 11 May 2021 $4,173 | −57.2% | 20 Jul 2021 70 days in | 166 | 25 Oct 2021 |
| ETH | 8 Nov 2021 $4,808 | −79.3% | 18 Jun 2022 222 days in | 1,382 | 22 Aug 2025 |
| ETH | 22 Aug 2025 $4,818 | −67.5% | 25 Jun 2026 307 days in | 388 | still running |
“Days below” counts daily closes strictly under the previous high; the day a new high is set is not one of them. Depth and duration are separate facts — the deepest episode is not always the longest one. Nothing here says how long the current one runs. What holding through them returned →
Bitcoin and ether are not interchangeable
| Measure | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Realised volatility, annualised | 82.3% | 93.5% |
| Deepest fall from a high | −84.9% | −94.0% |
| Longest stretch below a previous high | 1,176 days | 1,382 days |
| Days that closed below a previous high | 95.7% | 97.6% |
| Median result after four years | +1,133% | +700% |
| One-year start dates that ended lower | 27.7% | 39.3% |
Daily log returns of the two moved together with a correlationCorrelationA number between −1 and +1 saying how closely two things move together. At +1 they rise and fall in step, at 0 there is no relationship, at −1 they move in opposite directions.Full entry in the glossary → of 0.696 over 3,841 days — holding both is less diversification than the count of two suggests (concentration riskConcentration riskThe exposure that comes from holding a small number of things rather than many. Two assets that tend to move together concentrate risk more than their count suggests.Full entry in the glossary →). Every figure here is a price, and price is not the whole return for staked ether (price return vs total returnTotal returnThe whole return from holding something: the price change plus any income it paid along the way. Price return is the price change alone.Full entry in the glossary →).
Forecasts · BTC
Forecasts · ETH
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